Retailers' efforts to grab primary care market share aren't proving as successful as expected but growth by other nontraditional care providers continues to pressure traditional players, according to a new report.
The growing presence of payer-providers and advanced primary care providers that focus on more specialized lines of care like senior care means nontraditional providers are still expected to control a third of the market in 2030, according to consultant Bain & Company.
Related: Elevance Health, CD&R to form primary care company
It also anticipates more growth for companies that offer technological or administrative services to primary care providers.
Here are some of some key trends Bain predicted for primary care in 2030.
Retailers are in for a challenge
Bain predicted that by 2030, retail providers would account for 2% of the primary care market. Two years ago, Bain predicted they would control 7% of the market.
This year, however, has seen several chains shrinking their healthcare presence. Walmart closed all clinics in June while Walgreens is considering selling off its majority stake in primary care provider VillageMD.
Retail providers intent on growth need to have a heightened focus on care delivery models, brand and consumer engagement and input from healthcare experts in design and operations, said Dr. Erin Ney, an author of the study and member of Bain's healthcare and life sciences practice.
Retailers may need to adopt successful strategies used by advanced primary care providers and specialize in specific patient populations and care, Ney said.
While Ney said one of a retailer’s biggest assets is its large customer base, focusing on a specific patient base maybe the most sustainable financial model.
Payers could control 20% of the market
Insurer-owned primary care providers are expected to make up an estimated 20% of the primary care market in 2030, up from the 15% Bain predicted in 2022.
The growth is due in part to UnitedHealth's Optum and Humana's CenterWell.
However, these two giants aren't the only contributors. Elevance Health, alongside private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, earlier this year announced plans to form a primary care company.
"You're going to continue to see increased interest in investment by payers in primary care," Ney said. "It largely comes down to [recognizing] how important primary care is to delivering on high quality outcomes and managing cost of care."
CVS' Oak Street Health was considered a payer as part of Aetna for the analysis.
Companies supporting value-based care will grow
Faster growth is predicted for companies that offer supportive technology and administrative services to value-based care providers.
"Value-based care is going to continue to expand and more physicians are going to either want to participate or just by the economics of their practices feel like they need to be," Ney said. "The operational, administrative and financial hurdles to being successful in value-based care arrangements is very real and and these enablers offer a path to independent physicians who otherwise may not have the financial need or the administrative operational know-how to feel like they are capable of successfully taking on risk."
