CVS Health predicts its Aetna subsidiary will enroll one-third more Medicare Advantage beneficiaries than previously projected this year.
Aetna signed up more people than anticipated for individual and Dual Eligible Special Needs plans during the open enrollment period that ended Dec. 7, CVS Health disclosed in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Friday. The company now expects 800,000 new enrollees in 2024.
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Aetna had 3.4 million Medicare Advantage members through the third quarter, CVS Health reported in November. The insurer has an 11% market share, according to federal data compiled by KFF. If the new projections are accurate, Aetna Medicare Advantage enrollment would reach 4.2 million this year, nearly one-fourth more than through the first nine months of 2023.
"Our stronger-than-expected 2024 [Medicare Advantage] enrollment is driven by factors including strong new sales and retention of existing Aetna [Medicare Advantage] members, with a higher-than-historical proportion of new sales coming from competitor [Medicare Advantage] plans," CVS Health wrote in the SEC filing.
CVS Health did not immediately respond to an interview request.
Industry leaders UnitedHealth Group and Humana have tempered investors' expectations for 2024 amid intensifying competition and new federal regulations. UnitedHealthcare and Humana collectively cover 14.4 million Medicare Advantage enrollees, or 47% of the market, according to KFF.
UnitedHealth Group projects its Medicare Advantage membership to grow 5% this year, adding up to 550,000 new policyholders, the company said last month. When it reported third-quarter earnings in November, Humana projected sign-ups would rise 6%-8%, a slower rate than last year.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services will likely release updated Medicare Advantage enrollment data in February.
