Actuaries launch COVID-19 healthcare cost predictor for insurers
Skip to main content
MDHC_Logotype_white
Subscribe
  • My Account
  • Login
  • Subscribe
  • News
    • This Week's News
    • COVID-19
    • Providers
    • Insurance
    • Government
    • Finance
    • Technology
    • Safety & Quality
    • People
    • Regional News
    • Digital Edition
    • Chip Kahn
      Q&A: Providing 'health security' should be top priority for Congress, Biden says FAH CEO Kahn
      The Check Up: Chip Kahn
      The Check Up: Chip Kahn of the Federation of American Hospitals
      'Little old West Virginia' sets pace on vaccine rollout
      A man in a room with servers.
      Momentum grows to outsource hospital tech functions in 2021
    • Chip Kahn
      Q&A: Providing 'health security' should be top priority for Congress, Biden says FAH CEO Kahn
      The Check Up: Chip Kahn
      The Check Up: Chip Kahn of the Federation of American Hospitals
      'Little old West Virginia' sets pace on vaccine rollout
      COVID-19 hastens hospitals' revenue cycle outsourcing moves
    • The Check Up: Trenda Ray
      The Check Up: Trenda Ray of the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences
      Trenda Ray
      Q&A: Arkansas nursing leader looking for creative staffing solutions as COVID cases surge
      Cook Lydia 4x6_i.jpg
      Northeast Ohio health systems increase community benefit values in 2019
      Vaccine rollout hits snag as health workers balk at shots
    • CMS approves rule forcing insurers to ease prior authorization
      COVID-19 still a big uncertainty for insurers in 2021
      Health insurers' outlook boosted after Dems' Georgia win
      humana_i.jpg
      Humana supports Ohio not-for-profits with $500,000
    • The Check Up: Chip Kahn
      The Check Up: Chip Kahn of the Federation of American Hospitals
      'Little old West Virginia' sets pace on vaccine rollout
      Joe Biden
      Revamp of the nation's vaccination effort may not be enough
    • Operation Warp Speed Dr. Moncef Slaoui, Pfizer Group President Angela Hwang, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel, CVS Health Executive Vice President Karen Lynch and McKesson CEO Brian Tyler participate in a panel discussion on the COVID-19 vaccine.
      Hospitals, drug companies strive to stand out virtually at JPM
      Intermountain, Trinity, Memorial Hermann behind $300M private equity fund
      Operation Warp Speed to bump up McKesson's stock price
      Reporter's notebook: J.P. Morgan's 2021 health conference
    • A man in a room with servers.
      Momentum grows to outsource hospital tech functions in 2021
      5 things to know about Google's $2.1B Fitbit acquisition
      Providence bets on machine-learning, consolidating data centers
      Mental health treatment was most common telehealth service during COVID
    • Sticking to Mediterranean diet is good for the brain
      Chance of COVID-19 triage care looms over Arizona hospitals
      U.S. ramps up vaccinations to get doses to more Americans
      367146427.jpg
      Should businesses mandate that staff get the COVID vaccine?
    • Cone Health CEO, CFO to depart amid pending Sentara merger
      Tower Health's finance chief resigning after years of steep losses
      AHRQ director Gopal Khanna resigns in response to Capitol riot
      Brigham president stepping down after Moderna controversy
    • Midwest
    • Northeast
    • South
    • West
  • Insights
    • ACA 10 Years After
    • Best Practices
    • InDepth Special Reports
    • Innovations
    • The Affordable Care Act after 10 years
    • New care model helps primary-care practices treat obesity
      doctor with patient
      COVID-19 treatment protocol developed in the field helps patients recover
      Rachel Wyatt
      Project to curb pressure injuries in hospitals shows promise
      Yale New Haven's COVID-19 nurse-staffing model has long-term benefits
    • Dr. James Hildreth
      How medical education can help fight racism
      Modern Healthcare InDepth: Breaking the bias that impedes better healthcare
      Videos: Healthcare industry executives describe their encounters with racism
      Michellene Davis
      Healthcare leadership lacks the racial diversity needed to reduce health disparities
      Hospital divided into multiple pieces
      Health systems may be warming to offshoring, a mainstay practice for insurers
    • A woman with a wearable sensor talking to her provider.
      Wearable sensors help diagnose heart rhythm problems in West Virginia
      self service station
      COVID-19 pushes patient expectations toward self-service
      Targeting high-risk cancer patients with genetics
      A nurse holds up a phone with a message to a family member saying surgery has started.
      Texting, tablets help hospitals keep family updated on patient care
  • Transformation
    • Patients
    • Operations
    • Care Delivery
    • Payment
    • Highmark Health inks six-year cloud, tech deal with Google
      Study: 1 in 5 patients report discrimination when getting healthcare
      HHS proposes changing HIPAA privacy rules
      Android health records app launches at 230 health systems
    • California hospitals prepare ethical protocol to prioritize lifesaving care
      Amazon, JPMorgan Chase, Berkshire Hathaway disband Haven
      Digital pathways poised to reshape healthcare continuum in 2021
      Healthcare was the hardest hit by supply shortages across all U.S. industries
    • A woman with a wearable sensor talking to her provider.
      Wearable sensors help diagnose heart rhythm problems in West Virginia
      New care model helps primary-care practices treat obesity
      How hospitals are building on COVID-19 telehealth momentum
      Researchers: Hospital price variation exacerbates health inequities
    • MedPAC votes to boost hospital payments, freeze or cut other providers
      Most Next Gen ACOs achieved bonuses in 2019
      Congress recalibrates Medicare Physician Fee Schedule after lobbying
      CMS approves rule to encourage value-based drug pricing
  • Data/Lists
    • Rankings/Lists
    • Interactive Databases
    • Data Points
    • Health Systems Financials
      Executive Compensation
      Physician Compensation
  • Op-Ed
    • Bold Moves
    • Breaking Bias
    • Commentaries
    • Letters
    • Vital Signs Blog
    • From the Editor
    • Wellstar CEO calls adapting for the pandemic her bold move
      Howard P. Kern
      Recognizing the value of telehealth in its infancy
      Dr. Stephen Markovich
      A bold move helped take him from family doctor to OhioHealth CEO
      Dr. Bruce Siegel
      Why taking a hospital not-for-profit was Dr. Bruce Siegel’s boldest move
    • Barry Ostrowsky
      Ending racism is a journey taken together; the starting point must be now
      Laura Lee Hall and Gary Puckrein
      Increased flu vaccination has never been more important for communities of color
      John Daniels Jr.
      Health equity: Making the journey from buzzword to reality
      Mark C. Clement and David Cook
      We all need to 'do something' to fight inequities and get healthcare right, for every patient, every time
    • Dr. Bruce Siegel
      By protecting the healthcare safety net, Biden can put us on the path to a stronger country
      Healing healthcare: some ideas for triage by the new Congress, administration
      Dr. Sachin H. Jain
      Medicare for All? The better route to universal coverage would be Medicare Advantage for All
      Connectivity: a social determinant of health that can exacerbate all the others
    • Letters: Eliminating bias in healthcare needs to be ‘deliberate and organic’
      Letters: Maybe dropping out of ACOs is a good thing for patients
      Letters: White House and Congress share blame for lack of national COVID strategy
      Letters: VA making strides to improve state veterans home inspections
    • Sponsored Content Provided By Optum
      How blockchain could ease frustration with the payment process
      Sponsored Content Provided By Optum
      Three steps to better data-sharing for payer and provider CIOs
      Sponsored Content Provided By Optum
      Reduce total cost of care: 6 reasons why providers and payers should tackle the challenge together
      Sponsored Content Provided By Optum
      Why CIOs went from back-office operators to mission-critical innovators
  • Awards
    • Award Programs
    • Nominate
    • Previous Award Programs
    • Other Award Programs
    • Best Places to Work in Healthcare Logo for Navigation
      Nominations Open - Best Places to Work in Healthcare
      Nominations Open - Health Care Hall of Fame
      Nominations Open - 50 Most Influential Clinical Executives
    • 100 Most Influential People
    • 50 Most Influential Clinical Executives
    • Best Places to Work in Healthcare
    • Health Care Hall of Fame
    • Healthcare Marketing Impact Awards
    • Top 25 Emerging Leaders
    • Top 25 Innovators
    • Top 25 Minority Leaders
    • Top 25 Women Leaders
    • Excellence in Nursing Awards
    • Design Awards
    • Top 25 COOs in Healthcare
    • 100 Top Hospitals
    • ACHE Awards
  • Events
    • Conferences
    • Galas
    • Webinars
    • COVID-19 Event Tracker
    • Leadership Symposium
    • Healthcare Transformation Summit
    • Women Leaders in Healthcare Conference
    • Workplace of the Future Conference
    • Strategic Marketing Conference
    • Social Determinants of Health Symposium
    • Best Places to Work Awards Gala
    • Health Care Hall of Fame Gala
    • Top 25 Minority Leaders Gala (2022)
    • Top 25 Women Leaders Gala
  • Listen
    • Podcast - Next Up
    • Podcast - Beyond the Byline
    • Sponsored Podcast - Healthcare Insider
    • Video Series - The Check Up
    • Sponsored Video Series - One on One
    • Carter Dredge
      Next Up Podcast: Ready, set, innovate! Innovation and disruption in healthcare
      Next Up Podcast: COVID-19, social determinants highlight health inequities — what next?
      Next Up Podcast: Saving Rural Health
      Ceci Connolly
      Next Up Podcast: How to navigate the murky post-election waters
    • An older man wearing a mask receiving a vaccine.
      Beyond the Byline: Verifying information on the chaotic COVID-19 vaccine rollout
      doctor burnout
      Beyond the Byline: How healthcare supply chain struggles contribute to employee burnout
      Beyond the Byline: Covering race and diversity in the healthcare industry
      Beyond the Byline: How telehealth utilization has impacted investor-owned company earnings
    • Leading intention promote diversity and inclusion
      Introducing Healthcare Insider Podcast
    • The Check Up: Chip Kahn
      The Check Up: Chip Kahn of the Federation of American Hospitals
      The Check Up: Trenda Ray
      The Check Up: Trenda Ray of the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences
      The Check Up: Dr. Kenneth Davis
      The Check Up: Dr. Kenneth Davis of Mount Sinai Health System
      The Check Up: Dr. Thomas McGinn
      The Check Up: Dr. Thomas McGinn of CommonSpirit Health
    • Video: Ivana Naeymi Rad of Intelligent Medical Objects
  • MORE +
    • Advertise
    • Media Kit
    • Newsletters
    • Jobs
    • People on the Move
    • Reprints & Licensing
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. Insurance
June 30, 2020 04:52 PM

Actuaries launch COVID-19 healthcare cost predictor for insurers

Shelby Livingston
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Print
    Modern Healthcare Illustration / Getty Images

    The Society of Actuaries launched a tool on Tuesday to help health insurers and state regulators predict how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect healthcare costs, as they determine premiums for 2021.

    The publicly available tool, funded by a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation grant, allows users to come up with a range of forecasts for how healthcare costs could increase amid the COVID-19 outbreak compared to a scenario in which the pandemic never happened.

    It is meant to facilitate conversations between insurers and regulators and help users "understand the first wave and plan for a variety of potential future scenarios of COVID-19, as well as to see how the different factors play out over time, such as when there is a vaccine and how insurers cover future costs," said Dale Hall, the Society of Actuaries' managing director of research.

    Insurers are busy filing preliminary rates for Affordable Care Act plans to be sold next year, but the companies are struggling to figure out how to incorporate the potential costs for coronavirus tests and treatment into the rates, as well as how to address deferred care that doctors and patients have put off amid the crisis.

    Unknowns about the length and severity of the pandemic, the potential for a vaccine, and what services health insurers will be forced to cover have made it difficult for insurers to set premiums. Many have left COVID-19 out of the rate calculation for 2021, noting in filings submitted to state regulators that they don't yet have enough data to make accurate predictions. While insurers have asked for relatively small increases in rates, or even decrease in some cases, most insurers said they may need to update their rates when more information becomes available.

    The Society of Actuaries tool allows insurers and regulators to get on the same page by modeling a range of possibilities for the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on costs over the next couple of years, depending on what level of social distancing is enforced and how many people are ultimately infected. It can be used for all lines of business, including individual, employer, Medicare Advantage and Medicaid plans.

    The tool assumes that for every month in which a high level of social distancing is enforced, there would be a 4% drop in projected annual insured healthcare costs as patients put off care. It also assumes that 40% to 60% of that deferred care will be received at a later date when restrictions are relaxed.

    The model also projects a range of treatment costs, from an increase of less than 1% to an increase of 18% of costs, for patients affected by COVID-19, depending on the infection rate. Users of the tool can also predict the future costs of diagnostic tests and a potential vaccine.

    Individual market insurers in all states must turn in their proposed 2021 premiums for regulatory review by July 22. In states that use the federal HealthCare.gov marketplace, rates will be finalized by late August and publicly posted on Nov. 2.

    Letter
    to the
    Editor

    Send us a letter

    Have an opinion about this story? Click here to submit a Letter to the Editor, and we may publish it in print.

    Recommended for You
    CMS approves rule forcing insurers to ease prior authorization
    CMS approves rule forcing insurers to ease prior authorization
    COVID-19 still a big uncertainty for insurers in 2021
    COVID-19 still a big uncertainty for insurers in 2021
    Sponsored Content
    Get Free Newsletters

    Sign up for free enewsletters and alerts to receive breaking news and in-depth coverage of healthcare events and trends, as they happen, right to your inbox.

    Subscribe Today

    The weekly magazine, websites, research and databases provide a powerful and all-encompassing industry presence. We help you make informed business decisions and lead your organizations to success.

    Subscribe
    Connect with Us
    • LinkedIn
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS
    • Instagram

    Stay Connected

    Join the conversation with Modern Healthcare through our social media pages

    MDHC_Logotype_white
    Contact Us

    (877) 812-1581

    Email us

     

    Resources
    • Contact Us
    • Advertise with Us
    • Ad Choices Ad Choices
    • Sitemap
    Editorial Dept
    • Submission Guidelines
    • Code of Ethics
    • Awards
    • About Us
    Legal
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • Privacy Request
    Modern Healthcare
    Copyright © 1996-2021. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • News
      • This Week's News
      • COVID-19
      • Providers
      • Insurance
      • Government
      • Finance
      • Technology
      • Safety & Quality
      • People
      • Regional News
        • Midwest
        • Northeast
        • South
        • West
      • Digital Edition
    • Insights
      • ACA 10 Years After
      • Best Practices
      • InDepth Special Reports
      • Innovations
    • Transformation
      • Patients
      • Operations
      • Care Delivery
      • Payment
    • Data/Lists
      • Rankings/Lists
      • Interactive Databases
      • Data Points
    • Op-Ed
      • Bold Moves
      • Breaking Bias
      • Commentaries
      • Letters
      • Vital Signs Blog
      • From the Editor
    • Awards
      • Award Programs
        • 100 Most Influential People
        • 50 Most Influential Clinical Executives
        • Best Places to Work in Healthcare
        • Health Care Hall of Fame
        • Healthcare Marketing Impact Awards
        • Top 25 Emerging Leaders
        • Top 25 Innovators
        • Top 25 Minority Leaders
        • Top 25 Women Leaders
      • Nominate
      • Previous Award Programs
        • Excellence in Nursing Awards
        • Design Awards
        • Top 25 COOs in Healthcare
      • Other Award Programs
        • 100 Top Hospitals
        • ACHE Awards
    • Events
      • Conferences
        • Leadership Symposium
        • Healthcare Transformation Summit
        • Women Leaders in Healthcare Conference
        • Workplace of the Future Conference
        • Strategic Marketing Conference
        • Social Determinants of Health Symposium
      • Galas
        • Best Places to Work Awards Gala
        • Health Care Hall of Fame Gala
        • Top 25 Minority Leaders Gala (2022)
        • Top 25 Women Leaders Gala
      • Webinars
      • COVID-19 Event Tracker
    • Listen
      • Podcast - Next Up
      • Podcast - Beyond the Byline
      • Sponsored Podcast - Healthcare Insider
      • Video Series - The Check Up
      • Sponsored Video Series - One on One
    • MORE +
      • Advertise
      • Media Kit
      • Newsletters
      • Jobs
      • People on the Move
      • Reprints & Licensing