COVID-19 hospitalizations among older Americans have plunged 80% since the start of the year, dramatic proof the vaccination campaign is working. Now the trick is to get more of the nation's younger people to roll up their sleeves.
The drop-off in severe cases among people age 65 and older is so dramatic that the hospitalization rate among this highly vaccinated group is now down to around the level of the next-youngest category, Americans ages 50 to 64.
That slide is especially encouraging because senior citizens have accounted for about 8 in 10 deaths from COVID-19 since the virus hit the U.S.
Overall, COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have plummeted to about 700 per day on average, compared with a peak of over 3,400 in mid-January. All told, the scourge has killed about 570,000 Americans.
"What you're seeing there is exactly what we hoped and wanted to see: As really high rates of vaccinations happen, hospitalizations and death rates come down," said Jodie Guest, a public health researcher at Emory University.
The trends mirror what is happening in other countries with high vaccination rates, such as Israel and Britain, and stand in stark contrast to the worsening disaster in places like India and Brazil, which lag far behind in dispensing shots.
According to U.S. government statistics, hospitalizations are down 60% overall, but most dramatically among senior citizens, who have been eligible for shots the longest and have enthusiastically received them.
Two-thirds of American senior citizens are fully vaccinated, versus just one-third of all U.S. adults. Over 80% of seniors have gotten at least one shot, compared with just over 50% among all adults.
The hospitalization rate among those 65 and over is about 14 people per 100,000 population, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported, citing a surveillance system that gathers data from over 250 hospitals in 14 states.
At the same time, however, overall demand for vaccinations in the U.S. seems to be slipping, even as shots have been thrown open to all adults across the country. The average number of doses administered per day appeared to fall in mid-April from 3.2 million to 2.9 million, according to CDC figures.
"My concern is whether the vaccine uptake will be as strong in these younger age groups," Guest said. "If it's not, we will not see the positive impact for vaccines in these younger age groups that we've seen in our older population."
Also, new virus cases in the U.S. have been stuck at worrisome levels since March, averaging more than 60,000 per day, matching numbers seen during last summer's surge. The new cases are increasingly among people in their 30s, 40s and 50s, who also make up a larger portion of hospitalizations.
In Michigan, which has been battered by a recent surge of infections, hospitalizations among people in their 50s have increased 700% since late February, outpacing all other age groups.
In Seattle's King County, hospital physicians are seeing fewer COVID-19 patients overall, fewer needing critical care and fewer needing breathing machines. These younger patients are also more likely to survive.
"Thankfully they have done quite well," said Dr. Mark Sullivan, a critical-care doctor at Swedish Medical Center in Seattle. "They tend to recover a little quicker because of their youth."
With enough people vaccinated, COVID-19 cases should eventually begin to fall as the virus finds fewer and fewer people to infect. Guest and other experts say Israel appeared to reach that threshold last month after it fully vaccinated roughly 40% of its population of 9 million people.
But the U.S. faces challenges in conducting mass vaccinations because of its far greater size, diversity, geography and health disparities.
On Tuesday, President Joe Biden announced new federal funding for small businesses so that employees can take time off with pay to get vaccinated or recover from the shot's side effects.
The challenge will be quickly vaccinating younger Americans, who feel they are less vulnerable to the virus but are mainly the ones spreading the disease.
"To really feel that we're out of the woods we've got to see a lot fewer cases than we're seeing now," said Dr. Jesse Goodman, a vaccine specialist at Georgetown University. "It's going to take a wider, continuing effort."
In Chicago's Cook County, where 91% of adults 65 and older have had at least one shot, the patients in the hospital these days are younger and do better.
"That feeling of dread is definitely eased with older patients getting vaccinated," said Dr. Tipu Puri, a kidney specialist and associate chief medical officer for clinical operations at University of Chicago Medical Center.
At some moments, there's even joy, he said. He recently stopped to help an elderly couple find the hospital's vaccination clinic. The woman was pushing her husband's wheelchair.
"Those are people you hope you won't see in the hospital," Puri said. "We're not going to see them in the emergency room or in the ICU."
He added: "This is what coming out of the pandemic feels like."
