By 2019, nearly 60% of medical practices' Medicare revenue will come from pay models that require the providers to take downside risk, according to a new survey of AMGA members released Wednesday.
Overall, if Medicare Advantage, bundled payments and Medicare accountable care organizations are factored together, alternatives to Medicare fee-for-service, or FFS, are predicted to account for 59% of AMGA member's revenue by 2019, compared to 53% in 2017.
Medicare FFS payments are expected to decrease by 17% by 2019, while commercial FFS payments will decline by 11%.
The commercial risk market, however, continues to lag behind federal programs, according to the survey. For example, 56% of respondents said they have little to no access to commercial risk products in areas.
AMGA's findings comes just weeks after a joint AAFP/Humana survey found that 47% of doctors were actively pursuing value-based purchasing opportunities, up 3 percentage points from two years ago.
Many providers interviewed for that study voiced skepticism that the concept of value-based care works compared with standard fee-for-service. More than 3 in 5 of surveyed physicians said there is a lack of evidence that using performance measures results in better patient care.
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