Super Tuesday may define the coming healthcare clash

This week's Super Tuesday primaries in nearly a dozen states could set the course for the 2016 presidential healthcare debate. Based on polls, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton have a good chance to score victories in enough states to clinch their party's nomination in March.

If they face off against each other in November, the debate likely will be whether to expand and improve the Affordable Care Act or shift to more market-oriented approaches such as health savings accounts and interstate sales of health insurance plans. Still, Trump's direction on healthcare is somewhat unpredictable, given his statements supporting single-payer and the individual mandate that he later disavowed. Politico was recently unable to find any health policy experts who acknowledged offering Trump advice.

The polls showed Clinton comfortably leading Sen. Bernie Sanders in six Southern states with large minority populations, with close races in five others. Clinton was expected to gain momentum if she did as well as expected in Saturday's South Carolina primary. On the Republican side, Trump clearly led in polls in six of 13 states, with tossups between Trump and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in four others.

No matter who the GOP nominee is, Republicans will have to carry out their promise for “substantial repeal” of the ACA if they win the White House and keep control of Congress, said Democratic healthcare strategist Chris Jennings. “Healthcare industry stakeholders will say, 'We hate that.' But it will be very hard for the Republicans not to do something that creates major disruption.”