How quickly prognostications can change in the face of new information.
Attorneys, law students and political science aficionados at FantasySCOTUS are predicting the U.S. Supreme Court will rule 6-3 in favor of the federal government in King v. Burwell just days after predicting the government would lose 5-4. The shift comes after the justices and general public heard the oral arguments Wednesday.
Guesses on the votes of Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy both turned as of Thursday afternoon. A majority (58%) of people said Roberts will rule for HHS and that the premium subsidies should be allowed in all state and federal health exchanges. An even slimmer majority (51%) believe Justice Anthony Kennedy will also side with the government.
Roberts and Kennedy have long been considered the swing votes. Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan are expected to side with the government, while Justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito are projected to rule for the plaintiffs.
Roberts remained relatively quiet during Wednesday's arguments. But Kennedy questioned whether the plaintiffs' case posed a “serious constitutional problem.”
The website's computer algorithm will make its analytical prediction sometime this week, FantasySCOTUS founder Josh Blackman said.
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