Eliot Cutler, independent candidate for Maine governor, called a news conference last week to decry the ruling by a federal appellate court that could lead to the elimination of premium subsidies for Obamacare enrollees in Maine and 35 other states relying on the federal insurance exchange.
“Had there been a state exchange designed specifically for Maine … families across the state of Maine would not be wondering when they go to sleep tonight if and when they will lose their health insurance,” Cutler said.
So far Cutler, who trails Republican Gov. Paul LePage, a hard-line Obamacare foe, and Democratic nominee U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud in the polls, is one of the first political candidates across the country to use the court decision to fire up support among voters who benefit from the healthcare reform law's subsidies. But some experts say other political candidates may follow as they and voters have time to assess the ruling.
The ramifications of last week's 2-1 ruling by the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia in Halbig v. Burwell, which disallowed premium subsidies in states using the federal exchange, are potentially immense. If that opinion is ultimately upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court and enrollees in those states are denied subsidies, more than 7 million Americans would lose some $36 billion in premium assistance in 2016, according to the Urban Institute. It's expected that many if not most would drop their coverage. Those people would be disproportionately in Republican-led states, some of which saw big enrollment on the federal exchange.
“It becomes health reform for blue states,” said John Holahan, an author of the Urban Institute report. “In the rest of the country you don't have health reform.”
Republicans could face a backlash if their constituents realize they could lose benefits due to a lawsuit broadly backed by GOP politicians. That could be problematic for Republican governors facing tough re-election contests in states such as Florida, Georgia, Maine, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those governors already are under pressure from hospitals and other business groups to expand Medicaid to lower-income adults as allowed under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
“If the end result is if you live in New York you get (subsidies) and if you live in Georgia you don't, I don't think that's politically palatable,” said Kevin Wagner, a political science associate professor at Florida Atlantic University. “You start hitting middle-class people, and they vote.”