The CBO projects that 8 million individuals will be added to the Medicaid rolls in 2014. That's also 1 million fewer than previously anticipated. That number's expect to grow to at least 12 million in 2015, in part because more states are expected to expand Medicaid.
Overall, the CBO projects that 13 million additional individuals will have health insurance in 2014 because of the federal healthcare reform law. That figure is expected to grow to 20 million in 2015 and 25 million the following year. Even so, by 2024, there are still expected to be 31 million individuals—or roughly 1 in 9 residents—lacking coverage. Of those, 30% are anticipated to be unauthorized immigrants who are largely ineligible for Medicaid benefits and exchange subsidies. In addition, 45% are expected to be individuals who choose to forego insurance even though they have access to affordable coverage either through an employer or the exchanges.
The CBO projects that programs designed to protect insurers from risk in the new insurance marketplace—the risk adjustment, reinsurance and risk corridors programs—will cost the federal government $208 billion through 2024. But the federal agency now expects those programs to bring in $215 billion in revenues—meaning the government will actually net $8 billion from the programs. Previously, the CBO had scored the programs as revenue neutral. Some Republicans, including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), have decried the “risk corridor” program—which provides payments to insurers with higher-than-anticipated claims—as a government bailout of the insurance companies.
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