Monthly “premiums for … silver plans for a 40-year-old nonsmoker will range from a low of $205 in one region in Oregon to a high of $413 in another region in Vermont,” Avalere researchers said. “CBO previously projected nationwide the average monthly premium for the second-lowest cost silver plan would be $433.”
However, not everyone is expected to see lower-than-expected premiums. Younger, healthier enrollees will still likely face premiums higher than what is currently available on the individual market this year, according to Avalere. This so-called “rate shock” for young people will be present due to a narrower 3-to-1 age-band ratio. That narrower band will end up lowering premiums for older, sicker individuals at the expense of younger people.
Although rates for 2016 won't be out until mid-2015, Avalere does not expect rates to rise dramatically between 2014 and 2016 because those who will enroll in health insurance exchanges will tend to be those who are sicker and are receiving subsidies. Those who are relatively healthy will join gradually, Avalere argues, as individual mandate penalties grow and people become more familiar with exchanges.
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