Among employers that may drop worker health coverage because of the reform law, most would end coverage across the board instead of for select employee groups, according to federal researchers who examined 19 employer surveys. Other data predicted there would be little change in firms' plans to cover workers, they found.
In researching the effects of the healthcare law on employer-sponsored coverage, the Government Accountability Office examined five microsimulation models and 19 employer surveys. The models are based on data sets and assumptions, while the surveys rely on responses from employers ranging from small (50 or fewer employees), to medium and large employers (from 2,000 to 10,000). Most of the surveys found that some employers plan to drop coverage. Among that majority, most also found that no more than 10% of respondents were likely to drop coverage in the near term, which is generally within two years of implementation of the Affordable Care Act provisions. Those estimates, however, ranged from 2% to 20%. And of those planning to drop coverage, most plan to do so across the board rather than for specific groups of employees.