Medicaids future isnt as dire as previous estimates have suggested, the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured reported in the journal Health Affairs.
Expected growth in government revenues will probably be substantial enough to sustain Medicaid spending increases over the next 40 years, researchers concluded. Specifically, the programs share of national health expenditures, which was 16.5% in 2005, is expected to remain at that level from 2005 to 2025, gradually rising to 19% by 2045.
However, as overall health spending increases as a share of the gross domestic product from 2005 to 2045, there will be a commensurate increase in the share of GDP Medicaid spending represents, according to the report, which suggests there is nothing special about Medicaid spending. It is likely to increase with health spending more generally, neither much more quickly nor much more slowly, the authors concluded.
In addition, Medicaid shouldnt have a calamitous impact on state spending either. Spending pressures will be somewhat greater in the two decades following 2026, but under all but the most pessimistic scenarios, states can still expect substantial revenue growth for services other than Medicaid, the researchers concluded. Read the report. -- by Jennifer Lubell