In the next three years, New York City hospitals will employ substantially fewer healthcare workers as demand for those employees declines 10% to 15%, a new study predicts.
Currently, of 350,000 healthcare jobs in New York City, some 157,200 are hospital-based.
Researchers at the New School for Social Research and New York University, who led the analysis, didn't offer a precise estimate of the number of hospital-based jobs that will be lost because they only analyzed eight specific occupations. The study was conducted for the New York State Department of Health's bureau of health resources development.
The report covered supply and demand for physician assistants; registered nurses; licensed practical nurses; nurse aides, orderlies, assistants and home health aides; physical therapists; physical therapist assistants; clinical laboratory technicians; and food-service workers.
Demand for acute-care workers is slipping as hospitals respond to managed-care growth, cost-containment pressures and the movement of more clinical procedures to outpatient settings. From 2,000 to 4,500 acute-care beds-representing 7% to 15% of total acute-care capacity in the city-could close by the year 2000, the report said.
Still, the report predicts growth of outpatient clinics and home healthcare, which will fuel demand for certain healthcare professionals. For example, demand for physician assistants is expected to increase to 1,900 by 1997, outstripping supply by 300 or so.
While nursing homes and home-care providers will need more registered nurses, hospitals will need fewer, creating a surplus of 1,800 nurses by 1997.