Dr. Farzad Mostashari, head of the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology, predicts at least 100,000 providers will receive federal electronic health-record incentive payments by year's end.

Mostashari offered his prediction in a post on the ONC's Health IT Buzz blog. He isn't taking a giant leap of faith, given the explosive growth in the number of providers who have registered and been paid over the past three months under the two incentive programs authorized by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

Since October 2011, the number of so-called eligible professionals paid under the Medicare or Medicaid EHR incentive programs almost doubled to more than 31,000, with payments surpassing $1.9 billion according to the latest data from the CMS.

But for his prediction to come true, "the entire health IT ecosystem, including technology vendors, physician and hospital leaders, regional extension centers, state-level health IT coordinators, public health agencies and many others need to pull together toward getting as many providers to meaningful use as possible," he wrote.

Mostashari also predicted larger roles for health IT as a key component of healthcare payment reform, the increased use of information technology by consumers to improve their treatment and promote wellness and continued innovation in health IT.

"In summary, I see 2012 as the year in which health IT truly comes of age," Mostashari said. "While much work still needs to be done, the groundwork is firmly in place for what promises to be a breakthrough year in the adoption and widespread use of health IT in ways that improve care for individuals, improve health outcomes for populations and increase the value we get from our healthcare dollars."