Without increases in residency training, physician shortages post-reform will continue to worsen for both primary and specialty care, the Association of American Medical Colleges is reporting.
The AAMC estimates that there will be a shortage of 45,000 primary-care doctors and 46,000 surgeons and medical specialists over the next decade, driven in part by the healthcare reform law's new coverage expansions and the aging of the population.
Several provisions in the Affordable Care Act, such as the reshuffling of residency programs and the awarding of new primary-care grants, will actually add 3,500 new physicians to the workforce over the next 10 years, Atul Grover, the AAMC’s chief advocacy officer, said at a news conference.
“Now balance that out with 32 million people who will be getting insurance under the new law,” in addition to the growing ranks of Medicare patients, and these factors can add up to a physician shortage, he said. Doctors themselves are also getting older. The AAMC estimates that nearly one-third of all physicians will retire in the next decade, as even more people need care.
To ensure an adequate physician workforce, Congress needs to lift a 1997 freeze on Medicare supported residency positions, the AAMC recommended. “Unless the number of residency training positions expands at the nation’s teaching hospitals, the United States will face a declining number of physicians per capita just as the baby boomers swell the Medicare rolls,” according to the AAMC.
